Monthly Archives: October 2016

Are you need property and bonds

Old Mutual Investment Group sees domestic equities, property and bonds delivering higher returns in 2017, on the back of improving economic prospects.

It expects peaking interest rates and inflation in South Africa to create a positive environment for interest rate sensitive assets such as domestic property and bonds.  It sees inflation averaging at 5.4% in 2017 compared with 6.3% in 2016 and the benchmark repurchase rates falling to 6.5% by the end of 2017, down from 7% currently.

According to Peter Brooke, head of Old Mutual Investment Group’s MacroSolutions Boutique the 13.5% return on domestic bonds year-to-date as at November 24 2016 is artificially high due to an oversold bond market.

Instead, he said SA cash – with a 6.8% return in rand terms – is the best performing local asset class thus far. SA listed property delivered returns of 4% and the FTSE-JSE Share Weighted Index (SWIX) returned 2.5% over the same period.

After starting the year with the highest level of cash in its fund ever, the group is seeing more opportunities in equities as the domestic equity market de-rates.

“We’re not at the stage where the JSE is cheap yet. It is on a 13x forward but it does offer a real return in the region of 5%. We’re not back to levels that we have enjoyed for the last 100 years of around 6.5% but value is starting to incrementally rebuild,” he said.

“When we look at a balanced portfolio and we just use our static benchmark, in other words a passive offering, the expected real return on a balanced fund has picked up to 4%. It is the first time it has been at the 4% level in two and a half years, so we are starting to see a little bit of a better return coming through,” he said.

The group also warned against “excessive pessimism” over the South African economy as its prospects start to look up.

“Load shedding is long past, commodity prices have stabilised and have actually recovered a bit, rainfall is improving, the food inflation shock will reverse in the months to come and the labour environment has stabilised notably this year,” said Rian le Roux, chief economist at Old Mutual Investment Group.

He added that the National Treasury’s commitment to fiscal consolidation is expected to reduce pressure on monetary policy and lead to a lower interest rate from mid-2017.

The group has forecast GDP growth of 1.3% for 2017 but warned that improvements are likely to be slow due to the strained consumer environment, depressed business confidence, low levels of private investment and an expected rise in taxes.

Multiple bond applications affect on financial

In South Africa’s somewhat peculiar banking system, monthly charges for transactional accounts are a given. But is the few hundred rand you’re paying per month (if you’re lucky!) the best possible deal?

The first question you need to answer is whether you value having a ‘platinum’ or ‘private clients’ account with all the “value-adds” these offer?

Things like lounge access, bundled credit cards and a ‘personal’ banker are must-haves for some in the upper middle market. On the other end of the scale are basic, no-frills bank accounts (like Capitec’s Global One (and the clones from the other major banks)), but the truth is that most people need something a little more comprehensive than that. There’s likely a home loan, almost certainly vehicle finance and definitely a credit card.

So, do you need a ‘platinum’ (Premier/Prestige/Savvy Bundle)-type account? Do you actually use or need those value-adds? Or, do you enjoy the ‘status’ of having a platinum or black credit card? (Here, emotion – and ego – comes into the equation….)

This is an important question to answer, because the difference in bank charges between a more vanilla bundle account and ‘platinum’ is easily 50%!

While banks try to shoehorn you into product categories based on your salary or profession, there’s nothing stopping you from moving to another product (or refusing those ‘upgrades’). From a personal perspective, the only reason I have an FNB Premier (i.e. platinum) account (not gold) is because I do actually make use of the ‘free’, albeit diminishing, Slow Lounge access. And, the eBucks rewards I earn on this account are the most lucrative of the lot, based on the products I use, my transaction habits and spending patterns. (‘Upgrading’ to Private Clients is a mugs game because the thresholds for ‘earning’ rewards are significantly higher, to match one’s status and earnings, of course!)

Once you’ve answered this question – which is more important than most people realise – the next step is to figure out whether a bundled account or pay-as-you-transact one makes the most sense. Most of us enjoy not having to ‘worry’, so we readily sign up for the all-in-one package without actually understanding the differences in pricing.

Tips to increase your wealth

I am regularly asked for advice by younger people looking for a sure-fire way to build their wealth. They are often surprised when I tell them to invest more time and money in themselves and their human capital. Historically, people who do this are likely to create significantly more wealth over their lifetime than those who don’t. It is obvious that you need to accumulate investment assets but you also need to ensure that you earn income at an increasing rate over your career. The best way to do this is by investing in yourself.

What is human capital?

Human capital is the combination of skills, knowledge and abilities you have that will enable you to generate income over your working life. Nearly all of us have an ability to generate some income but very few people consistently invest in themselves so that they can increase their earning potential over time. According to the Federal Reserve of San Francisco, university graduates generate R16 million more income over their careers than non-graduates. This might give some context to the #feesmustfall campaign in South Africa.

If you choose to invest in yourself, you need to ensure that your skills and knowledge remain relevant and adaptable to changing economic conditions and an evolving business environment. You should regularly review whether you need to add to your skills or knowledge-base. Additionally, you need to be honest enough with yourself to be able to decide if you need to change careers if you are in a dead-end street. For instance, I would not consider newspaper printing as a long-term career option!

Specialise but not too much

Some careers reward those who specialise but one should always be careful of becoming too narrowly focused in your career. For example, deciding on an academic career researching the mating habits of albino penguins in the Southern Cape might not ensure a long-term income. However there might be less risk in being the orthopaedic surgeon who specialises in surgery of the shoulder in South Africa. Many young people strive to be a manager in a large corporate. This might be the most risky career choice one can make. Managers are essentially generalists and are often the first people to be fired in a merger or downsizing. If you plan to work in a corporate, you might do better focusing on being a revenue generator or product specialist.

Not only for academics

If you are not academically inclined or you have no interest in tech, you could always consider specialising in old world industries. There is a massive shortage of plumbers, electricians and general handymen. Now that more people work in services industries, there are many fewer people who can work with their hands. This provides an ideal opportunity for reskilling yourself if you have the inclination.